Friday, October 10, 2008

Syrian Border Deployment



Find the pattern:
  1. Following the end of the July War of 2006, UNSC 1701 is passed calling for a strict enforcement of the Syrian-Lebanese border, and preventing the armament of Syrian-backed militant groups in the country.

  2. Lebanese security forces intercept numerous weapons shipments arriving from Syria to militant groups in the country.

  3. Hizballah announces it has fully restocked and upgraded its armaments.

  4. Lebanese politicians and analysts call for the placement of UN troops along the Lebanese-Syrian border.

  5. Syrian authorities reject proposal for international force along Lebanese-Syrian border, calling the move a declaration of war.

  6. German-led international group consults Lebanese government on the placing of high-tech monitoring devices along Lebanon's northern border with Syria, in attempt to combat weapons smuggling from Syria to Lebanon.

  7. The Battle of Nahr el Bared: Despite numerous warnings from Hizballah and other Syrian allies in Lebanon, the Lebanese Army enters confronts a Syrian-backed (read armed) terrorist cell, Fatah al Islam, in the Nahr el Bared Refugee Camp, north of the city of Tripoli.

  8. At the same time, a media campaign is launched by Syrian allies in Lebanon (most notably Michel Aoun and the FPM) attempting to link the Fatah al Islam to the anti-Syrian movement, and more specifically, the moderate Sunni Future Movement.

  9. Fatah al Islam terrorist group leaders escape and take refuge in Syria (from where they originated) before the camp falls to the Lebanese Army.

  10. Hizballah launches assault on Beirut and the Mountain, in conjunction with other Syrian-backed militias.

  11. Following Hizballah's assault on Beirut and the Mountain, hostilities erupt in Tripoli between local Sunni residents and the small, Syrian-backed (read armed), Allawite community in that city.

  12. Attempts to impose an end to hostilities in the city are met with continued instigations, predominantly from Syrian-backed elements, and fighting resumes.

  13. Syrian-sponsored media campaign to portray Tripoli, and the north of Lebanon in general, as a hub for Sunni terrorist movements resumes, once again led by Syrian-allied Michel Aoun and his FPM.

  14. Near simultaneous terrorist attacks in Damascus and Tripoli - Syrian President links attacks to elements in Tripoli and northern Lebanon.

  15. Syria deploys special forces units to northern Lebanese border, cites efforts to combat smuggling

  16. Northern Lebanon locals report no disruptions to smuggling across border, worries of Syrian preparations for intervention in Northern Lebanon surface in Lebanon.

2 comments:

  1. Anonymous11:02 PM

    Clever, isn't it? Yes, Syria is paving the way for Western acquiescence to a role at Syria re-occupying Lebanon. The Lebanese gov't could avoid this fate if it could bring itself to assert its sovereignty in the region, rather than exert itself to occupy the Syrian part of the Shebaa Farms.

    ReplyDelete
  2. how can they possibly re-enter lebanon? northern terrorists-like excuse could really work?

    ReplyDelete

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