Friday, November 23, 2007

Implementing the Syrian Plan

This evening, and in response to the hours of negotiation - in Paris as in Beirut - spent in trying to bring FPM leader Michel Aoun into an agreement with the country's Anti-Syrian Parliamentary Majority, Aoun has proposed a "six-point plan of salvation".

In every point, Aoun has effectively outlined an implementation of long-standing Syrian objectives in Lebanon. Below is a quick look at my own summary of the more important points:
1. Aoun names a President of the Republic. This President would have to ensure the viability and continuity of Hizballah’s armed wing and their weapons, through adherence to the flawed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Aoun and the group. The President would also have to swear to resign his post after two years [as was suggested by Syria’s mailbox (Berri) a full three months ago] and pending the election of a new Parliament.
The leading name on Aoun’s mind for the post is rumoured to be Pierre Daccache [another Presidential Nobody initially seen as a neutral body but now viewed by the March 14th group as being completely aligned to Aoun’s FPM].
2. The post of Prime Minister would be barred to members of the Future Movement or a member of the March 14th group. This would only take place after Daccache’s election and Siniora’s resignation, of course, thereby pushing the parliamentary majority out of the office to which elections accorded it.
After this dissolution of the anti-Syrian majority’s representation in both top executive seat, the chosen politician for the Premiership would [according to the plan] symbolically declare his commitment to the International Tribunal. Not that there would be any chance for an implementation of any of the internal and/or international resolutions passed over the past 3 years under Aoun’s version of Syria’s plan:
3. Hizballah, and the rest of Syria’s allies in Lebanon would obtain veto power in the Cabinet through a 45% representation.
Combined with the neutralization of the Presidency, this would erase any executive control by March 14th and would provide the Syrians the implementation of a plan they had failed to achieve through war, assassination, and civil strife. Once again, despite any professed commitment to the International Tribunal [or any other UN Resolution on Syria's interference and Hizballah's weapons], the adoption of Aoun's version of Syria's plan would ensure a failure of implementation.

As a final note, I'll also mention this tidbit from the plan:
4. Hizballah and the pro-Syrians would also regain control over the Constitutional Council (the formation of which has been blocked for the past two years), as well as officer appointments throughout the various security apparatuses.
The main objective of this point would be to finish off the work of the campaign of assassinations directed against Anti-Syrian MPs by challenging electoral victories in districts secured by the Anti-Syrian coalition, thus dismantling the March 14th hold over Parliament. The move would also erase advancements made in the vetting of some security services from officers and agents collaborating with the Syrian regime.

To sum up, under Aoun's version of Syria's plan, the anti-Syrian coalition would lose its majority in Parliament; and its control of the Cabinet, the Premiership, and the Presidency.

Needless to say, the Parliamentary majority has already issued its rejection of this absurd proposal, calling on its MPs to attend a Presidential election session tomorrow. Hizballah, for its part has already declared that its MPs will not attend the session, laying the ground for a possible election of a President along a 50%+1 majority.

If a 50%+1 election does take place, the country's rumour mills place the leading candidate for the position to be Nassib Lahoud.


  1. BJ,
    You obviously enjoy an analytical mind that it is not given to all. What I still fail to understand is how is it that after Aoun's proposal those orange idiots still believe that he is our only salvation. Any half witted idiot could see that he was asking for more than just the presidential seat now, he wants the entire 10452km2.
    The only hope we have now left is that those, so far dissapointing, 14th of March elect a president today and screw the rest of them all.

  2. Spite.

    Thats how they do it. That at least is what I've noticed of the Aounists who are still Aounists: they are there out of spite, either for Hariri or for the LF.

    Nothing more, nothing less.

  3. A spiteful lot indeed. And generally (!) bitter and humourless. They often remind me (and I tend to be rather left-leaning) of those pseudo-intellectual analysis paralysis-dispensing European leftwingers who epitomised the expression "party-pooper, and who were quite rightly (just like today's aounists) labelled as useful idiots.

  4. Good job analyzing this. Your right, this plan to the observing bystander is supposed to look like a "good compromise," and a "honorable step," but in reality its a political ruse to try to give 'Aoun more political leverage.

    Its like, "either I am President or I pick the President, no exceptions, and I gave you chances for compromise..."


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