Thursday, May 17, 2007

Vote Now: Presidential Crisis Worst Case Scenarios

"The problem is not the tribunal but the creation of a government of national unity," repeated Lebanon's pro-Syrian Parliamentary Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday.

But despite Berri's repetition of a call few on the other side of the political divide put much stock in, none of the respondents to last week's Blacksmiths of Lebanon poll (many of whom support the Speaker) agreed with the Speaker's assessment.

According to the poll's 37 responds, it is the upcoming Presidential Elections (35.1%) that should be the focus of the country's politlicians in the aftermath of the International Tribunal's Chapter 7 ratification.

Coming in at second with 21.6% of votes was the belief that the holding of Parliamentary elections under a new electoral law could be the key to solving the country's. This while 16.2% of respondents felt that it was Hizballah's weapons which should receive immediate attention.

This week's Blacksmiths of Lebanon poll juxtaposes worst case scenarios from both of the country's de facto political factions in the much anticipated Presidential crisis due to start this coming September. We ask which undesirable (to some) situation would you support "if it came down to that".

So cast your vote and let us know what you think!


  1. I don't know BJ,
    Sounds to me like a just another variance of "me or instability"..

  2. "Me" being a March 14th President?

    Maybe, but to what end? We know that a Maronite member of the Future Movement won't be nominated, neither will any LF candidate most likely.

    The pool from which the M14 bloc will have to draw from will, for all intents and purposes, be neutral: Charles Rizk, Nessib Lahoud, and maybe Riad Salameh.

    The only purely M14th candidates I can think of who might have a chance are Butros Harb and Amin "coiffure" Gemayel, and I know for a fact that both of these men do not have a full M14 backing, let alone a M8th one.

    As for M8, who are their candidates? Aoun? Franjieh? Neither one has a chance. If they do push a crisis it will be to bring in Michel Suleiman. The country might well be accepting of a military man in the aftermath of a two government crisis.

  3. Coincidentally, if you Google the word "coiffure" on the world wide web, the second entry you get is a Lebanese one.


  4. Blacksmith Jade,

    I would have considered Nassib Lahoud to be a March 14th candidate. Also, I still reckon that the 'compromise' candidate could be somebody who is still flying under the radar. Incidentally, Demanios Khattar was on May Chidiac's LBC program the other night - did you have a chance to watch it?

  5. Anonymous8:34 AM

    The next president will be Samir Freingieh, Patriarch Sfeir will choose him

  6. Well as far as I can tell, Nessib Lahoud has support from across the political spectrum, but yeah it makes sense to consider him M14.

    I missed the Khattar interview, how was it?

    I don't think it will be Samir Frangieh and I don't think Sfeir will choose the President as much as lay down a set of criteria the next President should meet (and which will be impossible for Aoun to meet, by the way).

    Then again I could be mistaken, how about giving us a hint as to why you think thats how its giong to go down Anonymous.

  7. sorry can't shed any light on the Khattar interview, i only caught a few minutes at the end.

  8. More threats from Hizballah:

    Click Me!

  9. Anonymous10:55 AM

    لماذا فعل تنظيم فتح- الاسلام فعلته اليوم؟ لماذا يكون التوقيت مرتبطا دائما بحركة إقرار المحكمة الدولية؟ القوى الأمنية داهمت شقة لجأ اليها سارقون مسلحون، فإذا بالاستعدادات قائمة والمسلحون منتشرون تحضيرا ل"المعركة"! هكذا، وكما كل مرة، تحرك سوريا مجموعاتها الصغيرة، لتنفيذ عمليات على الأرض، في محاولة يائسة للتشويش على مسار إقرار المحكمة. وكما التشويش الميداني هكذا أيضا التشويش السياسي المستمر... لكن المحكمة آتية!

    Breaking news, Syria opens war on Lebanon in Tripoli

  10. Thanks for the update Anonymous


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